Wild Card Pickems 2015

The NFL playoffs have been set, and most of the seeding was decided in the late games yesterday.  Denver locked up the bye and #1 seed by defeating the Chargers, and Texans locked up the AFC South (as expected), and the Steelers got in with some help from the NY Jets.  On the other side, Packers and Minnesota really just played for their next opponent.

As much as it pains me that my dear Colts aren’t in it, I had already pretty much written the season off when Luck went down with some abdomen issues.  It just doesn’t seem right to have a no-name quarterback in there competing for a trophy, so I’m okay with it.  Look at some of these other teams.  McCarron, Hoyer (maybe) or Weeden, and Cousins running their teams?  Not sure it’s must watch until we reach conference finals, but oh well, for the 12 teams, there is a new season to worry about.  Here’s a review of the match-ups coming up.

 

Saturday 1/9/16:

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (3:35 PM CST)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (7:15 PM CST)

Sunday 1/10/16:

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (12:05 PM CST)

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (3:40 PM CST)

 

Wild Card Pickems

If you’ve followed my other pick articles, you know that my good friend Ryan and I have been betting with $1000 each week on all of the NFL games each week against the spread.  From the results of that, we tally up our wins and bettings, then add another $1000 each next week and start all over.

Chiefs (-3) over TEXANS

I’m not sure of the last time there was a team in the playoffs that didn’t know who their starting quarterback was.  Some of you might argue that Kubiak must decide between Manning or Osweiler, but I think we know who will start.  Anyway, the Chiefs are sneaky good.  I think they win easily.

Steelers (-2.5) over BENGALS

The Steelers are the team that nobody wanted to play against a couple weeks ago, and then people seems to forget about them.  Well I think Roth is getting hot at the right time.  They move on to play Denver.

Seattle (-5.5) over VIKINGS

This one and the Green Bay game are those that I’ve been going back and forth with.  A lot of people have been counting Minnesota out, but they have the league best 13-3 ATS, and really dominated the slumping Packers last week.

SKINS (-1) over Packers

The Packers seems to keep games close even though their offense has been inept the past few weeks.  They also don’t seem to lose games by less than 2 (besides Detroit early in the season).  I’m buying Kirk Cousins.

 

Another fun fact; the table below shows the number of Home and Away wins in the Wild Card games over the past 10 years.  As you can see we’ve alternated Home and Away taking three out of the four games.  As far as covering the spreads, it seems like the past 10 years have averaged fairly evenly with underdogs covering just slightly more often.

Year Home Away Favorite Covered Spread Underdog Covered Spread
2014 3 1 2 2
2013 1 3 0 3
2012 3 1 4 0
2011 4 0 3 1
2010 1 3 1 3
2009 2 2 1 3
2008 2 2 2 2
2007 2 2 2 2
2006 4 0 2 2
Avg. 2.4 1.6 1.9 2.0

So take that with a grain of salt, and have fun out there.