Most Likely NCAA Final Four Teams

It’s the season.

As we head into the middle of March, sports fans all around the nation know what sport to focus their attention on: college basketball. Let’s break down the most likely final four teams this year.

South Region

To many, this team is the surest bet to get to the Final Four. Our model doesn’t say any differently either. We’re giving them a 12.1% chance to reach the Final Four.

Somewhat similar to Pittsburgh in the East Region, this team is another one to fall short year after year in the tournament. We’re still giving them a 10.2% chance to reach the Final Four.

Miami (FL)
The Hurricanes from the South could spell trouble for their opponents. We’re giving them an 8.5% chance to advance to the final four.

This Big Ten school started off extremely well, and then sort of faultered through conference play. We’re giving them a 7.9% chance to advance, right above Maryland.

East Region

North Carolina
To no surprise, the Tar Heels are most likely to represent their region in the Final Four. Using the LRelo rating, this team scores a 12.9% chance of doing so.

History shows that this team usually underperforms in the big dance, however it has the second highest chance to reach the Final Four at 12.6%.

SF Austin
Whoa, didn’t think you’d see this one, especially with other teams like Notre Dame, Kentucky and Indiana in their bracket, did you? This SF Austin team is super-battle tested and comes in on the hottest streak in college basketball. Watch for this team to be a deep sleeper. If they get past West Virginia – watch out. We’re giving them a 10.7% chance to reach the Final Four.

This team always seems to do well in the tournament. According to, the Musketeers have never been seeded this high. This could be an upset waiting to happen, but we give them a 10.0% chance of advancing.

Midwest Region

Based on our model, Virginia has the highest chance in this region to advance to the Final Four – at approximately 12.3%.

Talk about a team that always seems to get there. The Spartans are, again, the front runner for most to win the whole thing (including me). Our model gives them an 11% chance at advancing to the final four.

Iowa State
A team that almost toppled Buddy Hield, this Iowa State team is given an 8.5% chance of advancing to the FF. This team is going to be a tough matchup come tournament time.

This team gave the Spartans a run for their money before finally giving up in the Big Ten Conference championship. Our model gives them one of the lowest chances, but still top 4 in their region at 7.9%.

West Region

Given a 12.2% chance to advance to the Final Four, the Ducks will be a tough matchup.

Buddy Hield and the Sooners are one of the reasons Ben Simmons talk for #1 overall in the NBA have diminished. This guy is good. Our model puts the OK Sooners at 10.7%, however would love to avoid Duke and Oregon.

Can you ever write off Duke in the big dance? We aren’t. They have an 8.6% chance to advance to the Final Four, and haven’t been quite as good as previous versions of the Blue Devils.

Texas A&M
This southern team comes in at an 8.5% chance to advance to the FF. They have an interesting second round matchup with potentially Texas, then Oklahoma, however our models says they have a great chance of advancing.


Photo by Beaverbasketball