2017 NCAA Tournament: Projecting 5-12 Upsets

 

1. UNC – Wilmington over Viriginia

Our model suggests that this is the most likely upset to occur between the 5-12 seeds. Based on strength, power indices and behavior, Virginia is only a 50.5% favorite to win the game (making them the lowest of the 5 seeds). Expect this one to be a good one.

2. Nevada over Iowa State

Nevada is the second team that could cause a stir.  This team is primed to make a big splash in the tournament and could see their first victim of the Cyclones.

3. Princeton over Notre Dame

While Notre Dame is only a 53.9% favorite to win the game, Princeton could show up as a challenge making this the third most likely upset of the 5-12 seeds.

4. Middle Tennessee over Minnesota

A lot of people are choosing Middle as a legitimate contender, however our model doesn’t suggest so.  Only in 3.7% of our iterations shows Middle to advance into the second round.

 

Expected 5-12 Winners (upsets are bolded)

    1. Virginia, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Minnesota (10.0%)
    2. North Carolina-Wilmington, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Minnesota (9.8%)
    3. Virginia, Notre Dame, Nevada, Minnesota (9.0%)
    4. North Carolina-Wilmington, Notre Dame, Nevada, Minnesota (9.0%)
    5. Virginia, Princeton, Iowa State, Minnesota (8.9%)
    6. North Carolina-Wilmington, Princeton, Iowa State, Minnesota (8.4%)
    7. Virginia, Princeton, Nevada, Minnesota (7.8%)
    8. North Carolina-Wilmington, Princeton, Nevada, Minnesota (7.4%)
    9. Virginia, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Middle Tennessee (4.4%)
    10. North Carolina-Wilmington, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Middle Tennessee (4.0%)
    11. North Carolina-Wilmington, Notre Dame, Nevada, Middle Tennessee (3.9%)
    12. Virginia, Notre Dame, Nevada, Middle Tennessee (3.8%)
    13. North Carolina-Wilmington, Princeton, Iowa State, Middle Tennessee (3.7%)
    14. Virginia, Princeton, Iowa State, Middle Tennessee (3.7%)
    15. North Carolina-Wilmington, Princeton, Nevada, Middle Tennessee (3.3%)
    16. Virginia, Princeton, Nevada, Middle Tennessee (2.9%)